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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.